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What accounts for Maersk's losses?

2023-11-13 15:44:54

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Hong Kong Linerlytica analysis said that the sudden sharp drop in container rates in the third quarter was the result of Maersk Line's attempt to regain market share. Container rates have fallen sharply so far this year due to a double shock to market fundamentals: falling demand and soaring capacity, with record order levels translating into deliveries.

The analyst said: "Maersk is not cutting excess capacity, but actively adding new capacity while slashing rates to regain market share." Maersk's sharp price cuts are one of the main reasons for the sharp decline in market rates in the third quarter." In its analysis, Linerlytica noted that Maersk's average freight rates fell 14% quarter-on-quarter, despite 68% of its total volume coming from fixed contracts. Other market watchers, however, have questioned Linerlytica's analysis. Drewry shipping consultant Simon Heaney refused to blame any one shipping company, saying: "It takes more than one company to get involved."



Drury said that essentially all carriers are showing signs that they are returning to pre-pandemic practices of seeking market share, and the feedback Drury is getting from shippers is that some of these rate choices are "troubling." People coveted it "because the price was so low. Heaney declined to point the finger at any one shipping company, instead wanting to see clear evidence from shipping companies' returns that "the evidence is there that rates are coming down." How many of these are operators committing suicide?" It's hard to say how much of that is down to market fundamentals." In addition, Heaney said Drury has seen a "small increase" in spot rates and believes this could be due to problems with low water levels in the Panama Canal. Mr Drury painted a tough picture of the container industry's near-term prospects. "Shipping lines are expected to update premium contract rates next year, but we don't see anything to support that expectation," Heaney said.



James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum (GSF), also demurred when asked about Maersk's cut-price race. "I don't know that Maersk has done more than other shipping companies," he said. According to the GSF, key market reports from its members relate to capacity cuts through a series of voyage suspensions and recent failed attempts to raise rates. Beyond that, most shippers are focused on dealing with geopolitical tensions (including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East), economic uncertainties (including US-China relations), and the need for greater supply chain resilience as a result of these challenges. Maintaining supply chains in a context of great uncertainty. Maersk declined to comment on Linerlytica's comments.

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