Thailand elects a new prime minister. Is the political arena facing a reshuffle?

"Underwater Competition and Game"

On August 14, a ruling by the Constitutional Court of Thailand caused a new wave of turmoil in Thai politics.

The Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled with a majority opinion of 5 to 4 that Setha's nomination of a person with a record of illegal activities as a minister during the cabinet reshuffle violated relevant constitutional provisions and removed him from the position of prime minister from that day.

The announcement of the Constitutional Court of Thailand showed that Phichit, the Minister of the Prime Minister's Office nominated by Setha in the cabinet reshuffle in April, had been sentenced to six months in prison for contempt of court and did not have the qualifications required by the constitution for a cabinet minister.

The announcement stated that Setha nominated Phichit as the Minister of the Prime Minister's Office knowing that Phichit lacked relevant qualifications, which violated relevant constitutional provisions.

In May, 40 then-caretaker members of the Thai Senate jointly requested the Constitutional Court through the Speaker of the Senate to terminate Setha and Phichit's positions. Although Phichit had resigned as the Minister of the Prime Minister's Office on May 21 "so that the Prime Minister can continue to govern the country", the Constitutional Court still decided to accept the case on May 23.

"This shocking ruling will plunge Thai politics into further uncertainty," said the US media.

Tang Qifang, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Strategy at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that Setha's dismissal can be analyzed from two perspectives.

On the surface, "this matter complies with legal procedures." But from a deeper level, "considering the series of changes in Thailand's political situation in recent years, it can be seen that this is still the result of the struggle between various parties."

Setha was ruled unconstitutional, "This is not an isolated incident," Tang Qifang described, "It is a visible change on the surface, but what is invisible under the surface is the competition between various parties."

The political arena may be "reshuffled"

In fact, the ruling that Seta was unconstitutional was the second major ruling made by the Thai Constitutional Court in a week.

The Thai Constitutional Court just dissolved the largest party in the lower house of parliament, the Far East Party, on the 7th. All executive members of the party are not allowed to engage in politics within 10 years.

For a time, voices such as "shocking ruling" and "further increase in political uncertainty in Thailand" were heard.

Some analysts also believe that frequent power changes may affect the continued advancement of Thailand's economic and social policies, causing foreign investors to remain on the sidelines.

What impact will Seta's dismissal have on Thai politics? How will Thailand's political situation develop in the future? 

In this regard, Tang Qifang believes that the current consensus among observers is that Thai politics may "produce some new and relatively large changes." In this regard, Tang Qifang summarized two aspects.

First, "Thailand may soon face a new general election," when the political arena will be "reshuffled," and the ruling coalition will once again divide and regroup, and engage in new games and compromises. 

Secondly, "If the Far East Party is ordered to disband, its supporters may develop a rebellious mentality and become a destabilizing factor in society. This is worrying.