Rates are plummeting! The three major alliances are suspended

The latest Delury WCI freight index fell 3.4%, and the European and Mediterranean routes plunged 10% and 7% respectively; The U.S. East edged down 1%, while the U.S. West edged up 2%.

In July and the first half of August, spot rates on trans-Pacific routes continued to rise as liner operators increased GRI, a trend that also affected Asia-Europe routes from the beginning of August. According to the data, this is precisely due to liner companies in order to better match capacity and demand for increased displacements. However, by the end of August, this trend began to reverse and spot rates on these major routes fell back again. For now, underlying peak demand remains weak.

The freight forwarding industry expects that the cargo volume of the Northwest and East routes of the United States is not ideal, which is the key factor leading to the decline in freight rates of the United States line. At present, it seems that there is unlikely to be a shipment tide before the golden Week, coupled with the record high number of new shipbuilding launched in the second half of the year, freight rates are easy to fall but not rise, and shipping companies need to increase the difficulty of stopping traffic in response to this situation. Shipping in the third quarter of the traditional peak season is not prosperous, if there is no delayed replenishment tide in the fourth quarter, coupled with the continued use of new ships, freight rates will face greater downward pressure.

In terms of near-ocean routes: the freight rates of near-ocean routes are mixed, with the Far East to Kansai, Japan falling by $1 per TEU to $310 compared with the previous period; Far East to Japan Kanto per TEU is the same as the previous phase; The Far East to Southeast Asia increased by $10 per TEU from the previous phase; Far East to South Korea is priced at $145 per 20TEU, unchanged from the previous phase.

In addition, some shipping companies analysis, the global economic trend is still full of challenges, the short-term downturn in the shipping market is still conservative, will continue to respond prudently. As for the severe drought in the Panama Canal, which has caused the water level to drop, we will continue to pay attention to the relevant measures taken by the authorities and maintain the on-time service of the US-East route.

At present, the two major shipping giants Mediterranean shipping and Maersk will increase the European and American routes suspension insurance efforts before the Golden week (details of the shipping network history article: The two major shipping giants take the lead in the Golden week suspension! With suspension summary), MSC11 began to cancel more than 10 flights from Asia to Northern Europe.

Jars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said that due to the Golden Week, coupled with weak export demand, shipping companies are likely to announce a wave of outages in October, while warning shippers should keep an eye on carriers and start preparing for mass outages to be announced in the coming weeks. Sea-Intelligence, a Danish maritime consultancy, estimates that shipping companies will reduce the number of scheduled flights by about 9% to 10% in the coming weeks.

In fact, during the Golden Week holidays in the first week of October until the end of the month, members of the three alliances have announced the suspension of multiple routes in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean region.

THE latest customer advisory from Hapag-Lloyd, the alliance leader, said the cancellations included the FE2, FE3 and FE4 routes to Northern Europe with 24,000 TEU ships deployed in Week 40 due to "anticipated reduced demand".

For THE Asia-Mediterranean route, THE Alliance partners have followed the lead of the 2M Alliance and MSC's standalone services by significantly reducing capacity on the route between Week 40 and week 43.

It is unclear whether THE alliance member HMM will cancel the launch in August of standalone routes from Asia, India to the Mediterranean.

Due to heavy capacity injection by shipping companies and weak demand, freight rates for Asian-Mediterranean shipping have fallen in recent weeks, with spot rates falling below $1,000 /TEU.

However, it is worth noting that the three major alliances during the Golden Week holiday suspension, which may lead to shippers and freight forwarders next month for the European line export goods difficult to book shipping space. "If shippers start rushing to book space and cargo is delayed on the next voyage, rates will go up," admits one operator contact.